Evaluation of Water Sustainability under a Changing Climate in Zarrineh River Basin, Iran

Farhad Yazdandoost (), Sogol Moradian and Ardalan Izadi
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Farhad Yazdandoost: K.N.Toosi University of Technology
Sogol Moradian: K.N.Toosi University of Technology
Ardalan Izadi: K.N.Toosi University of Technology

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2020, vol. 34, issue 15, No 17, 4846 pages

Abstract: Abstract This paper presents the results of studies on water resources management strategies, under the influence of climate change, in the Zarrineh River basin, providing some 41% of the total inflow into the Lake Urmia. Climate change simulation over the period 1992–2050 was performed by downscaling of seven global circulation models. The best model was then selected for modelling the hydrological behavior of the basin using a rainfall-runoff model while an allocation model was used to evaluate future supply and demands. A system dynamics model was further utilized to investigate the sustainability of the dynamic behavior of the basin. Five suggested water resources management strategies for two future climate scenarios were investigated. Results indicated that implementation of the strategy of 40% reduction in agricultural water demand would provide higher degrees of sustainability. Based on this, the average annual inflow to Lake Urmia in the years 2021 to 2050 would be 1029.75 MCM, which is equal to 81.02% of the Lake Urmia’s environmental requirement from the river’s share.

Keywords: Climate strategies; Water resources sustainability; System dynamics modelling; Integrated system performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02693-3

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