Risks Ranking in a Desalination Plant Construction Project with a Hybrid AHP, Risk Matrix, and Simulation-Based Approach

Georgios K. Koulinas (), Alexandros S. Xanthopoulos (), Konstantinos A. Sidas () and Dimitrios E. Koulouriotis ()
Additional contact information
Georgios K. Koulinas: Democritus University of Thrace
Alexandros S. Xanthopoulos: Democritus University of Thrace
Konstantinos A. Sidas: Hellenic Open University
Dimitrios E. Koulouriotis: Democritus University of Thrace

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2021, vol. 35, issue 10, No 10, 3233 pages

Abstract: Abstract This paper proposes a hybrid process based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), risk matrix, and Monte Carlo Simulation for prioritizing delay risks in construction projects and estimating the probability of timely project completion. The main contribution of this study is the development of a novel framework for risk assessment that quantifies the impact of more critical risks to each activity according to its nature and benefits from the advantages of the AHP for constructing an enhanced risk matrix. In addition to the above, the proposed framework exploits the computational potential of Monte Carlo Simulation to obtain more accurate predictions of a project’s completion time. The proposed approach was used for analyzing the duration, expected delay, and the probability of completion within the deadline, of a vital seawater desalination plant construction project, on the island of Alonissos, Greece. The proposed framework predicted the project duration more accurately than the classic PERT method did, and the results of the analysis documented that it could be a simple tool providing risk managers with helpful information while making decisions under uncertainty.

Keywords: Delay risks; Project risk management; Uncertainty; Monte Carlo simulation; Analytical hierarchy process (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-021-02886-4 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02886-4

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11269

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02886-4

Access Statistics for this article

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) is currently edited by G. Tsakiris

More articles in Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) from Springer, European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().