The Impact of Climate Change on Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Using Copula Functions

Zahra Fahimirad () and Nazanin Shahkarami ()
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Zahra Fahimirad: University of Qom
Nazanin Shahkarami: Arak University

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2021, vol. 35, issue 12, No 5, 3969-3993

Abstract: Abstract Climate change has made many alterations to the climate of earth, including hydro-climatic extreme events. To investigate the impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological droughts in the Kamal-Saleh dam basin in Markazi province, Iran, proportional to future climate conditions, a new and comprehensive index was developed with the aim of accurately estimating drought in a more realistic condition. This aggregate drought index (ADI) represented the main meteorological and hydrological characteristics of drought. Temperature and precipitation projections for future climates were simulated by five CMIP5 models and downscaled over the study area during 2050s (2040–2069) and 2080s (2070–2099) relative to the baseline period (1976–2005). By fitting five univariate distribution functions on drought severity and duration, proper marginal distributions were selected. The joint distribution of drought severity and duration was chosen from five types of copula functions. The results revealed that in future, severe droughts are expected to frequently occur in a shorter period.

Keywords: Drought; Climate change; Aggregated index; PCA; Copula function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02918-z

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