Comparison of the Calculated Drought Return Periods Using Tri-variate and Bivariate Copula Functions Under Climate Change Condition

Elaheh Motevali Bashi Naeini (), Ali Mohammad Akhoond-Ali, Fereydoun Radmanesh, Jahangir Abedi Koupai and Shahrokh Soltaninia
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Elaheh Motevali Bashi Naeini: Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
Ali Mohammad Akhoond-Ali: Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
Fereydoun Radmanesh: Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
Jahangir Abedi Koupai: Isfahan University of Technology
Shahrokh Soltaninia: University of Hertfordshire

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2021, vol. 35, issue 14, No 10, 4855-4875

Abstract: Abstract Concerning the various effects of climate change on intensifying extreme weather phenomena all around the world, studying its possible consequences in the following years has attracted the attention of researchers. As the drought characteristics identified by drought indices are highly significant in investigating the possible future drought, the Copula function is employed in many studies. In this study, the two- and three-variable Copula functions were employed for calculating the return period of drought events for the historical, the near future, and the far future periods. In this paper, bivariate and trivariate of Copula functions were applied to evaluate the return periods of the drought in the historical period and the two near and near future periods. Moreover, the results of considering bivariate and trivariate of Copula functions were compared separately with the results of the calculated return periods for each of the drought characteristics; accordingly, the role of each drought characteristics was considered. The most severe historical drought was selected as the benchmark, and the drought-zoning map for the GCM models was drawn. The results showed that severe droughts could be experienced, especially in the upper area of the basin where the primary water resource is located. In addition, the nature of the drought duration plays a decisive role in calculating the return periods of drought events.

Keywords: Drought return period; Climate change; Copula function; Drought map (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02965-6

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