A Copula-Based Multivariate Probability Analysis for Flash Flood Risk under the Compound Effect of Soil Moisture and Rainfall

Ming Zhong (), Ting Zeng (), Tao Jiang (), Huan Wu (), Xiaohong Chen () and Yang Hong ()
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Ming Zhong: Sun Yat-sen University
Ting Zeng: Sun Yat-sen University
Tao Jiang: Sun Yat-sen University
Huan Wu: Sun Yat-sen University
Xiaohong Chen: Sun Yat-sen University
Yang Hong: University of Oklahoma

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2021, vol. 35, issue 1, No 5, 83-98

Abstract: Abstract Flash floods can be characterized by several variables. Of these, soil moisture (SM) is an important environmental factor that plays a key role in hydrological and ecological processes and affects the mechanisms that cause flash floods. To more accurately determine the occurrence probability of flash floods, the combined effects of soil moisture and rainfall indexes were considered in this paper, and the copula function approach was explored for use in joint probability analyses of flash flood risks. The results showed that (1) the Clayton copula function offered the best fit for the bivariate joint distribution and captured the occurrence probability of the combination of both peak flow (PF) and SM, while the t-copula function achieved the best fit for the multivariate joint distribution, which presented different combinations of characteristic flash flood parameters. (2) The joint distribution probability of flash floods increased with increasing risk parameter thresholds. Return period analysis indicated that the return periods of the bivariate joint distribution were smaller than those of the multivariate joint distribution. (3) If PF and SM are fixed, the occurrence probability of flash floods is higher in regions where the maximum 1-h rainfall is higher. This study provides an effective and quantitative approach to improving flash flood prediction and advances the application of this approach for the management of future flash flood risks.

Keywords: Copula function; Combination of risk probability; Flash floods; Multivariate joint distribution; Soil moisture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02709-y

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