Spatiotemporal Modelling of Water Balance Components in Response to Climate and Landuse Changes in a Heterogeneous Mountainous Catchment

Negar Tayebzadeh Moghadam, Karim C. Abbaspour, Bahram Malekmohammadi (), Mario Schirmer and Ahmad Reza Yavari
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Negar Tayebzadeh Moghadam: University of Tehran
Karim C. Abbaspour: Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
Bahram Malekmohammadi: University of Tehran
Mario Schirmer: Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
Ahmad Reza Yavari: University of Tehran

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2021, vol. 35, issue 3, No 2, 793-810

Abstract: Abstract Landuse change and climate change are the main drivers of hydrological processes. The purpose of this study was to analyse the separate and combined future effects of climate and landuse changes on water balance components on different spatial and temporal scales using the integrated hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. The study focused on the changes and relationship between water yield (WYLD) and sediment yield (SYLD) in the heterogeneous Taleghan Catchment in Iran. For future climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of GFDL-ESM2M GCM were used for 2020–2040. A Markov chain model was used to predict landuse change in the catchment. The results indicated an increase in precipitation and evapotranspiration. The findings also showed that the relationship between WYLD and SYLD is direct and synergic. Climate change has a stronger effect on WYLD than landuse change, whereas landuse change has a stronger effect on SYLD. The conversion of rangelands to barren land is the most critical landuse change that could increase SYLD. The highest increase in WYLD and SYLD in scenario RCP4.5 resulted from the combined effects of climate and landuse change. We estimated WYLD of about 295 mm and SYLD of around 17 t/ha. The proposed methodology is universal and can be applied to similar settings to identify the most vulnerable regions. This can help prioritize management strategies to improve water and soil management in watersheds.

Keywords: Water yield; Sediment yield; SWAT model; Taleghan Catchment; Iran (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02735-w

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