Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Future Water Demand using Weather Data

Diana Fiorillo (), Zoran Kapelan, Maria Xenochristou, Francesco De Paola and Maurizio Giugni
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Diana Fiorillo: University of Naples Federico II
Zoran Kapelan: Delft University of Technology (TU Delft)
Maria Xenochristou: Stanford University
Francesco De Paola: University of Naples Federico II
Maurizio Giugni: University of Naples Federico II

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2021, vol. 35, issue 5, No 4, 1449-1462

Abstract: Abstract Assessing the impact of climate change on water demand is a challenging task. This paper proposes a novel methodology that quantifies this impact by establishing a link between water demand and weather based on climate change scenarios, via Coupled General Circulation Models. These models simulate the response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations by reproducing atmospheric and ocean processes. In order to establish the link between water demand and weather, Random Forest models based on weather variables were used. This methodology was applied to a district metered area in Naples (Italy). Results demonstrate that the total district water demand may increase by 9–10% during the weeks with the highest temperatures. Furthermore, results show that the increase in water demand changes depending on the social characteristics of the users. The water demand of employed users with high education may increase by 13–15% when the highest temperatures occur. These increases can seriously affect the capacity and operation of existing water systems.

Keywords: Water distribution network; Smart meters; Water demand; Climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02789-4

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