Dam Hydrological Risk and the Design Flood Under Non-stationary Conditions

Leandro José Isensee (), Adilson Pinheiro and Daniel Henrique Marco Detzel
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Leandro José Isensee: Fundação Universidade Regional de Blumenau
Adilson Pinheiro: Fundação Universidade Regional de Blumenau
Daniel Henrique Marco Detzel: Federal University of Paraná

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2021, vol. 35, issue 5, No 7, 1499-1512

Abstract: Abstract Increasing global trends in time series of annual maximum daily streamflow (AMX) raise the concern that the safety of dams and other sensitive structures is compromised. There is no defined methodology to estimate the design flood (DF) under non-stationarity; thus, the objective of this work is to evaluate the behavior of the hydrological risk of Brazilian dams due to the non-stationary nature of the AMX time series and the implications of the non-stationary nature of the AMX time series in the design of new dams. For this, the hydrological risk of 108 AMX time series was evaluated, comparing the time intervals between 1954–1984 and 1954–2014. A case study was also executed, where the DF was estimated in a non-stationary time series. The generalized distribution of extreme values (GEV) was applied in the time series analyses. The results indicate that the hydrological risk of Brazilian dams increased, and safety may have been reduced. Regarding the ranking of models, the use of physical covariates in the estimate of the DF makes the estimates more reliable. Finally, although significant trends are good indicators, they alone do not guarantee a reduction or increase in risk. It was also observed that using non-stationary models is less important than updating the estimates with newly observed data.

Keywords: Design flood; Non-stationary; Extreme values; Time series; Hydrological risk; Dam safety (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02798-3

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