An Analytical Risk Analysis Method for Reservoir Flood Control Operation Considering Forecast Information

Yawei Ning, Wei Ding (), Guohua Liang, Bin He and Huicheng Zhou
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Yawei Ning: Dalian University of Technology
Wei Ding: Dalian University of Technology
Guohua Liang: Dalian University of Technology
Bin He: Dalian University of Technology
Huicheng Zhou: Dalian University of Technology

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2021, vol. 35, issue 7, No 2, 2079-2099

Abstract: Abstract Risk analysis is vital for reservoir flood control operation considering forecast because forecast uncertainties may create risks of multiple hazard events, including the single-hazard events, the union and intersection of single-hazard events (UHE and IHE). The probability of UHE and IHE are the major concern of decision-makers. This research proposes an analytical flood risk probability calculation framework for single-hazard event, UHE and IHE caused by uncertainties in flood forecasting and takes Dahuofang Reservoir, located in the Hunhe River basin, Northeast China, as a case study. In the framework, the risk is calculated by the integral of the joint probability density function (Pdf) of the risk sources over the hazard domain, which is the collection of the values of risk sources that cause hazards. The determination method of the hazard domain and the Pdf of risk sources and the procedure of risk analysis are elaborated. Results of single-hazard events show that the proposed methodology is of higher precision compared with the risk analysis method based on the law of total probability. Meanwhile, the flood risks of UHE and IHE are calculated for the reservoir operation under different levels of flood limit water level. The study provides a new method of flood risk analysis for flood control reservoir operation.

Keywords: Risk analysis; Reservoir operation; Integral thought; Hazard domain; Union and intersection of single-hazard events (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02795-6

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