Updating IDF Curves Under Climate Change: Impact on Rainfall-Induced Runoff in Urban Basins

Ioannis M. Kourtis, Ioannis Nalbantis, George Tsakiris, Basil Ε. Psiloglou and Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis ()
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Ioannis M. Kourtis: National Technical University of Athens
Ioannis Nalbantis: National Technical University of Athens
George Tsakiris: National Technical University of Athens
Basil Ε. Psiloglou: National Observatory of Athens
Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis: National Technical University of Athens

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2023, vol. 37, issue 6, No 11, 2403-2428

Abstract: Abstract The main aims of the present work were to: develop sub-hourly Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves considering future climate projections and predict the impact of climate change on rainfall induced runoff in an urban drainage network. The application was undertaken using hourly measured rainfall data from one station. Because data for sub-hourly rainfall durations were not available for the examined station, a relationship between hourly and sub-hourly rainfall depths was established by employing the scale-invariance theory and using 5-min and 10-min measured rainfall data from two nearby stations. IDF curves were developed based on 1-h annual maxima series, using both the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Gumbel distributions. Prior to the development of the IDF curves, a trend analysis was conducted. Climate change impact on the urban drainage network was assessed based on future IDF curves by employing the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) for all hydrologic-hydraulic simulations. It was shown that the statistical properties of annual maxima series present a simple scaling property over time scales ranging from 5 min to 1 h. This allowed the development of IDF curves based on 5-min (scaled) annual maxima series using GEV distribution. The results revealed that by year 2100, rainfall intensities of 1-h duration are projected to increase under the mean climate scenario for all return periods examined. Finally, the predicted urban runoff presented significant variability depending on the studied future climate scenario. Peak discharge at the outlet of the urban drainage network ranged from 4.9 m3/s to 8.3 m3/s. With respect to the current situation, the percent change for peak discharge was estimated at -9%, 47% and 69% for the lower, mean and upper climate change scenarios, respectively. In addition, the surface runoff ranged from 22.2 mm to 73.8 mm, according to the examined scenario, with percent difference estimated at 0.02%, 86% and 232% for lower, mean and upper climate change scenarios, respectively.

Keywords: Climate change; Trend analysis; Bias correction; Temporal disaggregation; Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves; Uncertainty; Urban drainage; SWMM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03252-8

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