Assessing the Impact of Social Network Structure on the Diffusion of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Generalized Spatial SEIRD Model

Giorgio Fagiolo (giorgio.fagiolo@santannapisa.it)

LEM Papers Series from Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy

Abstract: In this paper, I study epidemic diffusion in a generalized spatial SEIRD model, where individuals are initially connected in a social or geographical network. As the virus spreads in the network, the structure of interactions between people may endogenously change over time, due to quarantining measures and/or spatial-distancing policies. I explore via simulations the dynamic properties of the co-evolutionary process dynamically linking disease diffusion and network properties. Results suggest that, in order to predict how epidemic phenomena evolve in networked populations, it is not enough to focus on the properties of initial interaction structures. Indeed, the co-evolution of network structures and compartment shares strongly shape the process of epidemic diffusion, especially in terms of its speed. Furthermore, I show that the timing and features of spatial-distancing policies may dramatically influence their effectiveness.

Keywords: Corona Virus Disease; COVID-19; Diffusion Models on Networks; Spatial SEIRD Models. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-10-22
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-geo, nep-net, nep-pay, nep-soc and nep-ure
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2020/27

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