Turkish Aggregate Electricity Demand: An Outlook to 2020

Zafer Dilaver () and Lester Hunt ()
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Lester Hunt: Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey

No 132, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) from Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between Turkish aggregate electricity consumption, GDP and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish aggregate electricity demand. To achieve this, an aggregate electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. The results suggest that GDP, electricity prices and an underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) are all important drivers of Turkish electricity demand. The estimated income and price elasticities are found to be 0.17 and -0.11 respectively with the estimated UEDT found to be generally upward sloping (electricity using) but at a generally decreasing rate. Based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish aggregate electricity demand will be somewhere between 259 TWh and 368 TWh in 2020.

Keywords: Turkish Turkish Aggregate Electricity Demand; Structural Time Series Model (STSM); Energy Demand Modelling and Future Scenarios. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 Q41 Q47 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2011-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-cwa, nep-ene and nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (27)

Published in Energy, 36(11), 2011, pp. 6686-6696. (Revised Version)

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https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/seeds/SEEDS132.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020 (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sur:seedps:132

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