COVID-19 epidemic in Slovakia through the lens of a parsimonious behavioral SIR model

Michal Marenčák

No WP 2/2022, Working and Discussion Papers from Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia

Abstract: This paper presents a parsimonious behavioral SIR model with compartments for hospitalized and vaccinated shares of population, contagion among vaccinated and loss of immunity. A model variant with vaccination, the transmission rate endogenously responding to the share of hospitalized patients, seasonal variation and pandemic fatigue matches the epidemic evolution from July 2020 to February 2022 in Slovakia remarkably well. We find that vaccination, despite being among the slowest in the EU, reduced the death toll in Slovakia by up to 18,500 deaths. Assuming the pace of EU countries with the highest vaccination rates lowers the cumulative deaths by another 8,000.

JEL-codes: C0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41 pages
Date: 2022-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-tra
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:svk:wpaper:1086

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