Synthetic Controls with Multiple Outcomes: Estimating the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in the COVID-19 Pandemic

Wei Tian (), Seojeong Lee and Valentyn Panchenko ()
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Wei Tian: School of Economics, UNSW Business School, UNSW
Valentyn Panchenko: School of Economics, UNSW Business School, UNSW

No 2023-05, Discussion Papers from School of Economics, The University of New South Wales

Abstract: We propose a generalization of the synthetic control method to a multiple-outcome framework, which improves the reliability of treatment effect estimation. This is done by supplementing the conventional pre-treatment time dimension with the extra dimension of related outcomes in computing the synthetic control weights. Our generalization can be particularly useful for studies evaluating the effect of a treatment on multiple outcome variables. To illustrate our method, we estimate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on various outcomes in Sweden in the first 3 quarters of 2020. Our results suggest that if Sweden had implemented stricter NPIs like the other European countries by March, then there would have been about 70% fewer cumulative COVID-19 infection cases and deaths by July, and 20% fewer deaths from all causes in early May, whereas the impacts of the NPIs were relatively mild on the labor market and economic outcomes.

Keywords: Synthetic control; Policy evaluation; Causal inference; Public health (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C54 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2023-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-hea
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