Long and short-distance internal migration motivations in post-apartheid Namibia: a gravity model approach

Eldridge Moses ()
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Eldridge Moses: Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University

No 11/2020, Working Papers from Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics

Abstract: The paper estimates a gravity model to analyse migration in contemporary Namibia, with the specific aim of understanding differences in long and short-distance migration. The sample is restricted to migrants moving in 2010 and 2011, who are between the ages of 20 and 49 years. Given Namibia’s history of apartheid-era segregation, the sample is later restricted to African-language speaking migrants to determine whether the distances traveled to satisfy information and finance-constrained needs differ from that of the full population. A zero-inflated negative binomial model is applied to estimate the effects of constituency-level economic indicators, labour market conditions, agricultural activity, and built amenities on migration flows. Regression analysis shows that analyzing internal migration flows in Namibia without accounting for distance-related differences in migrant motivations may produce misleading results. Disaggregation of migration flows by distance reveals that for both the entire population and the restricted African-language speaking sample, constituency differences in amenity quality are significant predictors of intermediate-distance migration volumes. Per capita income differences in favour of the receiving constituency increase long-distance migration volumes. For all distances, previous migration in the sending constituency is a strong positive predictor of migration volumes.

Keywords: internal migration; urbanisation; Namibia; gravity model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J61 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev and nep-mig
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