Can macroeconomic variables explain long-term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan

Andreas Humpe and Peter Macmillan

Applied Financial Economics, 2009, vol. 19, issue 2, 111-119

Abstract: Within the framework of a standard discounted value model, we examine whether a number of macroeconomic variables influence stock prices in the US and Japan. A cointegration analysis is applied in order to model the long-term relationship between industrial production, the consumer price index, money supply, long-term interest rates and stock prices in the US and Japan. For the US, we find the data are consistent with a single cointegrating vector, where stock prices are positively related to industrial production and negatively related to both the consumer price index and the long-term interest rate. We also find an insignificant (although positive) relationship between the US stock prices and the money supply. However, for the Japanese data, we find two cointegrating vectors. We find for one vector that stock prices are influenced positively by industrial production and negatively by the money supply. For the second cointegrating vector, we find industrial production to be negatively influenced by the consumer price index and a long-term interest rate. These contrasting results may be due to the slump in the Japanese economy during the 1990s and consequent liquidity trap.

Date: 2009
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DOI: 10.1080/09603100701748956

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