The impact of COVID-19 on economic growth: evidence from a Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) model

Emmanuel Apergis and Nicholas Apergis ()

Applied Economics, 2021, vol. 53, issue 58, 6739-6751

Abstract: This paper explores the impact on the macroeconomy for certain OECD economies exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. The analysis employs a panel of OECD countries, spanning the period March 2020 to January 2021. It also uses two proxies for the COVID-19 shocks: i) total confirmed incidences/cases and ii) total deaths while using the Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) method. The findings document that the COVID-19 shock exerts a strong negative effect on industrial production. Considering how such epidemic shocks affect the expectations of economic participants, the paper questions their absence in accounting for forthcoming growth-related incidences.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2021.1946479

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