Towards Enhancement of the Economy of a Thermal Power Generating System through Prediction of Plant Efficiency

Indranil Mukhopadhyay, Sudipta Chatterjee and Aditya Chatterjee

Journal of Applied Statistics, 2007, vol. 34, issue 3, 249-259

Abstract: The plant 'Heat Rate' (HR) is a measure of overall efficiency of a thermal power generating system. It depends on a large number of factors, some of which are non-measurable, while data relating to others are seldom available and recorded. However, coal quality (expressed in terms of 'effective heat value' (EHV) as kcal/kg) transpires to be one of the important factors that influences HR values and data on EHV are available in any thermal power generating system. In the present work, we propose a prediction interval of the HR values on the basis of only EHV, keeping in mind that coal quality is one of the important (but not the only) factors that have a pronounced effect on the combustion process and hence on HR. The underlying theory borrows the idea of providing simultaneous confidence interval (SCI) to the coefficients of a p-th p(≥1) order autoregressive model (AR(p)). The theory has been substantiated with the help of real life data from a power utility (after suitable base and scale transformation of the data to maintain the confidentiality of the classified document). Scope for formulating strategies to enhance the economy of a thermal power generating system has also been explored.

Keywords: Plant heat rate; effective heat value; dependence analysis; autoregressive process; prediction interval (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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DOI: 10.1080/02664760601004767

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