Earthquakes occurrences estimation through a parametric semi-Markov approach

Giovanni Masala

Journal of Applied Statistics, 2012, vol. 39, issue 1, 81-96

Abstract: The estimation of earthquakes’ occurrences prediction in seismic areas is a challenging problem in seismology and earthquake engineering. Indeed, the prevention and the quantification of possible damage provoked by destructive earthquakes are directly linked to this kind of prevision. In our paper, we adopt a parametric semi-Markov approach. This model assumes that a sequence of earthquakes is seen as a Markov process and besides it permits to take into consideration the more realistic assumption of events’ dependence in space and time. The elapsed time between two consecutive events is modeled as a general Weibull distribution. We determine then the transition probabilities and the so-called crossing states probabilities. We conclude then with a Monte Carlo simulation and the model is validated through a large database containing real data.

Date: 2012
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/02664763.2011.578617 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:japsta:v:39:y:2012:i:1:p:81-96

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CJAS20

DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2011.578617

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Applied Statistics is currently edited by Robert Aykroyd

More articles in Journal of Applied Statistics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().