 Impacts of macroeconomic variables on the stock market index in Poland: new evidenceYu Hsing and Wen-jen Hsieh Journal of Business Economics and Management, 2011, vol. 13, issue 2, 334-343 Abstract: Applying the GARCH or ARCH model, this paper finds that Poland's stock market index is positively associated with industrial production or real GDP and the German stock market index, negatively affected by the government borrowing/GDP ratio, the real interest rate, the nominal effective exchange rate, the expected inflation rate, and the government bond yield in the euro area, and exhibits a quadratic relationship with the M2/GDP ratio. It suggests that the stock market index and the M2/GDP ratio show a positive (negative) relationship if the M2/GDP ratio is less (greater) than the critical value of 43.68%. Hence, to maintain a healthy stock market, the Polish authorities are expected to pursue economic growth, reduce government borrowing, avoid currency appreciation, and keep a relatively low interest rate or a relatively low expected inflation rate. Although currency appreciation has a negative impact on the stock market index, it is possible that the negative relationship might change if a certain threshold value is reached in the future. Date: 2011 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:jbemgt:v:13:y:2011:i:2:p:334-343 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from DOI: 10.3846/16111699.2011.620133 Access Statistics for this article Journal of Business Economics and Management is currently edited by Izolda Joksiene, Romualdas Ginevicius and Ieva Meidute More articles in Journal of Business Economics and Management from Taylor & Francis Journals |
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