Devising a Practical Model for Predicting Theatrical Movie Success: Focusing on the Experience Good Property

Byeng-Hee Chang and Eyun-Jung Ki

Journal of Media Economics, 2005, vol. 18, issue 4, 247-269

Abstract: This study attempts to devise a new theoretical framework to classify and develop predictors of box office performance for theatrical movies. Three dependent variables including total box office, first-week box office, and length of run were adopted. Four categories of independent variables were employed: brand-related variables, objective features, information sources, and distribution-related variables. Sequel, actor, budget, genre (drama), Motion Picture Association of America rating (PG and R), release periods (Summer and Easter), and number of first-week screens were significantly related to total box office performance.

Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.1207/s15327736me1804_2

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