A Latent Source Model to Detect Multiple Spatial Clusters With Application in a Mobile Sensor Network for Surveillance of Nuclear Materials

Jerry Q. Cheng, Minge Xie, Rong Chen and Fred Roberts

Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2013, vol. 108, issue 503, 902-913

Abstract: Potential nuclear attacks are among the most devastating terrorist attacks, with severe loss of human lives as well as damage to infrastructure. To deter such threats, it becomes increasingly vital to have sophisticated nuclear surveillance and detection systems deployed in major cities in the United States, such as New York City. In this article, we design a mobile sensor network and develop statistical algorithms and models to provide consistent and pervasive surveillance of nuclear materials in major cities. The network consists of a large number of vehicles on which nuclear sensors and Global Position System (GPS) tracking devices are installed. Real time sensor readings and GPS information are transmitted to and processed at a central surveillance center. Mathematical and statistical analyses are performed, in which we mimic a signal-generating process and develop a latent source modeling framework to detect multiple spatial clusters. A Monte Carlo expectation-maximization algorithm is developed to estimate model parameters, detect significant clusters, and identify their locations and sizes. We also determine the number of clusters using a modified Akaike Information Criterion/Bayesian Information Criterion. Simulation studies to evaluate the effectiveness and detection power of such a network are described.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2013.808945

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