Bayesian Analysis of Latent Threshold Dynamic Models

Jouchi Nakajima and Mike West

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2013, vol. 31, issue 2, 151-164

Abstract: We discuss a general approach to dynamic sparsity modeling in multivariate time series analysis. Time-varying parameters are linked to latent processes that are thresholded to induce zero values adaptively, providing natural mechanisms for dynamic variable inclusion/selection. We discuss Bayesian model specification, analysis and prediction in dynamic regressions, time-varying vector autoregressions, and multivariate volatility models using latent thresholding. Application to a topical macroeconomic time series problem illustrates some of the benefits of the approach in terms of statistical and economic interpretations as well as improved predictions. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2012.747847

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