 On long-term credit risk assessment and rating: towards a new set of modelsHideya Kubo and Yasuhiro Sakai Journal of Risk Research, 2011, vol. 14, issue 9, 1127-1141 Abstract: Institutional investors are supposed to assess credit risk by using a combination of quantitative information such as option models and qualitative assessments. Although option models can be easily constructed, they are not so suitable for the assessment of long-term credit risk that is required by institutional investors. This is mainly because the probability of bankruptcy varies so widely depending on the timing of assessment. We propose a new set of assessment models for long-term credit risk which does not necessarily use stock prices and may incorporate business cycles. The new grand model consists of the two pillars: a long-term cash flow prediction model and a credit risk spread assessment model. The calculated values derived from these models are effectively usable for reasonable calculation of risk spreads. It is quite interesting to see that our investigation indicates that rating bias may exist in the credit risk assessment of the market. Date: 2011 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:14:y:2011:i:9:p:1127-1141 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2011.571793 Access Statistics for this article Journal of Risk Research is currently edited by Bryan MacGregor More articles in Journal of Risk Research from Taylor & Francis Journals |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.