Implications of the Growth of China and India for the Middle East

Elena Ianchovichina, Maros Ivanict and Will Martin

Middle East Development Journal, 2009, vol. 1, issue 1, 79-103

Abstract: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to benefit more than most other regions from continued rapid growth in China and India. This paper analyzes the trade-related implications of this growth for the MENA countries using a global general equilibrium model, modified to take into account the focus of China and, increasingly, India on exports of manufactures from global production chains. To obtain a better idea of the implications for key countries in the region, we developed a database with expanded coverage of Middle-Eastern countries. We find that most of the gains to the MENA region come from improvements in the terms of trade, particularly linked to increasing demand for energy. Exports from the Middle East as a whole are expected to decline although exports from the non-oil economies will likely expand. Fuelled by higher incomes and by increases in the competitiveness of China and India, imports into MENA are expected to increase. In the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East, Dutch-disease effects increase the importance of policies to promote adjustment to the changing world environment.

Date: 2009
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812009000061 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Journal Article: IMPLICATIONS OF THE GROWTH OF CHINA AND INDIA FOR THE MIDDLE EAST (2009)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:79-103

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/rmdj20

DOI: 10.1142/S1793812009000061

Access Statistics for this article

Middle East Development Journal is currently edited by Raimundo Soto

More articles in Middle East Development Journal from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst (chris.longhurst@tandf.co.uk).