Private debt in Sweden in 1900-2013 and the risk of financial crisis

Lars Ahnland

Scandinavian Economic History Review, 2015, vol. 63, issue 3, 302-323

Abstract: This study presents new time series data for private debt in Sweden in 1900-2013, including credit from banks, mortgage institutes and credit companies. The reconstruction of the data is a scientific task by itself, and is complicated by changed definitions, breaks in the series, and the need for occasional interpolation and cross-reference of sources. The obtained data reveal both qualitative and quantitative changes in the structure of private debt in Sweden during the period. One finding is a pattern where the era starting with the deregulation of the credit market in 1985 resembles the era preceding World War Two. Both periods experienced a high level of private debt-to-GDP ratio as well as severe financial crises. In a first application of the data, the hypothesis of rising private debt in the years before a financial crisis is explored through logit regression. The findings are in line with international research, and suggest that higher lending, especially from banks, might aggravate the risk of financial crisis.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1080/03585522.2015.1084946

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