Selection of an Estimation Window in the Presence of Data Revisions and Recent Structural Breaks

Jari Hännikäinen
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Jari Hännikäinen: School of Management, University of Tampere

No 1692, Working Papers from Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics

Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the forecasting performance of a set of widely used window selection methods in the presence of data revisions and recent structural breaks. Our Monte Carlo and empirical results for U.S. real GDP and inflation show that the expanding window estimator often yields the most accurate forecasts after a recent break. It performs well regardless of whether the revisions are news or noise, or whether we forecast first-release or final values. We find that the differences in the forecasting accuracy are large in practice, especially when we forecast inflation after the break of the early 1980s.

Keywords: Recent structural break; choice of estimation window; forecasting; real-time data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 C82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2016-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-for
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http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-03-0308-2 Third version, 2016 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Selection of an Estimation Window in the Presence of Data Revisions and Recent Structural Breaks (2017)
Working Paper: Selection of an estimation window in the presence of data revisions and recent structural breaks (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tam:wpaper:1692

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