ABD Kira Enflasyonu ve Konut Fiyat Dinamikleri

Yavuz Arslan and Birol Kanık

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu notta Amerika Birlesik Devletleri (ABD) konut piyasasi, uzun ve kisa donem goreli kira hareketleri ve ipotekli konut kredisi faiz oranlari kullanilarak analiz edilmektedir. Ilk olarak, OECD verileri kullanilarak cesitli ulkelerdeki kira ve TUFE enflasyonu arasindaki uzun donemli iliski incelenmistir. Incelenen ulkelerin buyuk bir kisminda uzun donemde kira enflasyonunun TUFE enflasyonundan daha yuksek oldugu tespit edilmistir. Ayrica, konut piyasasi fiyat dinamiklerinin en etkin belirleyicilerinden olan ipotekli konut kredisi faiz oranlari, kira enflasyonuyla birlikte Gordon fiyatlama formulunde kullanilarak Gordon fiyat endeksi olusturulmus ve endeksin gerceklesen fiyatlarla iliskisi incelenmistir. Endeks, artan kira enflasyonu ve dusuk konut kredi faiz oranlari ile yuksek degerlere ulasmakta ve konut fiyatlarinin onumuzdeki donemde artabilecegine isaret etmektedir. [EN] In this note, we analyze the US housing market by considering short-term and long-term relative rent inflation and mortgage rates. First, we investigate the long-term relationship between CPI and rent inflation for different countries by using OECD data. Rent inflation has been higher than the CPI inflation in the long run for most of the studied countries. Moreover, we use rent inflation with long-term mortgage rates to construct Gordon house price index and compare the index with the housing data. Taking into account the past data and the Gordon house price index, the recent increase in the rent inflation implies that US housing prices could increase in the upcoming months.

Date: 2012
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