Fiyat Degisimlerinin Yapisi ve Enflasyon

Utku Ozmen and Orhun Sevinc

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu notta urun bazinda (mikro) fiyatlari iceren genis bir veri seti kullanilarak Turkiye’deki fiyat katiligi incelenmektedir. Fiyat degisimlerinin dagilimi, yonu ve buyuklugu ile fiyatlarin ortalama kalis sureleri analiz edilerek tuketici enflasyon dinamiklerinin tanimsal ozellikleri ortaya konmaktadir. Fiyat degisimleri icin genelde azalislarin da artislar kadar gozlendigi iki-modlu bir dagilim mevcutken, ortalama fiyat artis ve azalis oranlarinin mutlak deger olarak oldukca yuksek ve birbirine yakin oldugu saptanmistir. Ortalama fiyat kalis suresi ise gruplar itibariyla degiskenlik gostermekle birlikte oldukca kisadir. Soz konusu bulgular, Turkiye’de fiyatlarin gelismis ekonomilere ve bircok gelismekte olan ulkeye kiyasla daha esnek olduguna ve mikro fiyatlarin degisim sikliginin ima ettigi enflasyon katiliginin dusuk olduguna isaret etmektedir. [EN] In this note the degree of flexibility of prices in Turkey is assessed by using a large micro data set of product-level prices. Descriptive characteristics of inflation dynamics are depicted by analyzing distribution, size and sign of price changes, and typical price spell lengths. We find that the price changes follow a bi-modal distribution in general, where price decreases are observed as frequent as price increases. Meanwhile, the average size of price increases and decreases are similar and high in absolute value. Duration of an average price spell is shorter than those reported for developed countries and varies across product groups to a large extent. The findings indicate that Turkish consumer prices are considerably more flexible than those of advanced economies and several developing countries. Furthermore, the inflation persistence implied by the frequency of micro level price changes is also low.

Date: 2012
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