Iletisim Politikasi ve Enflasyon Beklentileri

Yusuf Baskaya, Eda Gulsen () and Hakan Kara

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] 2011 yilinin ikinci yarisinda enflasyonda hizli bir yukselis gozlenmesi ve enflasyonun uzunca bir muddet hedefin belirgin olarak uzerinde seyretmesi enflasyon beklentilerinin yakindan izlenmesini gerektirmektedir. Bu calisma, beklenti olusumunun zaman icindeki seyrini inceleyerek anilan donemde davranissal bir bozulma yasanip yasanmadigini incelemektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, enflasyon hedefinin beklentilerin temel belirleyicilerinden biri olmaya devam ettigini ve gecmis enflasyonun beklentiler uzerindeki etkisinin zaman icinde azaldigini gostermektedir. Bu sonuclar, enflasyon hedefinin cipa olma niteligini koruduguna isaret etmektedir. [EN] After displaying a sharp increase during the second half of 2011, inflation has been significantly above the target for a long period, necessitating a close monitoring of inflation expectations. This study assesses the evolution of inflation expectations and investigates whether there is a behavioral deterioration in the recent period. Our findings indicate that inflation target is still one of the main determinants of inflation expectations. Moreover, the weight of past inflation in explaining inflation expectations has been declining through time. These results suggest that inflation targets continue to serve as an anchor.

Date: 2012
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara
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