Turkiye’de Sermaye Stogu ve Sermaye Hizmetleri Endeksi

Ufuk Demiroglu

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bir ulkenin makine techizat ve yapi stoklari (yenilenebilir sabit sermayesi) o ulkenin uretim kapasitesini belirleyen onemli bir faktordur, ve potansiyel GSYH tahminlerine onemli bir girdi teskil etmektedir. Bu notta Turkiye’deki yapi stogu (konut, isyeri, okul veya hastane yapilari; endustriyel veya ticari tesislerin binalari; yollar; kopruler vb.) cok yaklasik deger olarak GSYH’nin bir bucuk kati, makine techizat stogu ise yarisi civarinda tahmin edilmistir. Yapi stogunun 3 kat daha buyuk olmasina ragmen, yapilarin yipranma orani dusuk oldugu icin toplam kullanici maliyeti bakimindan bu iki stok turu benzesmektedir. Uretime katki yetenegi ile kullanici maliyetlerinin orantili olmasi gereginden yola cikarak, bu iki stok turunun uretime katkilarinin 1 : 3 degil 1 : 1 oranina daha yakin oldugu sonucuna ulasilmaktadir. Buyume muhasebesi hesaplarinda kullanim amaciyla, anilan katki oranini dogru olarak yansitan bir sermaye hizmetleri endeksi olusturulmustur. Bu endeks yerine toplam sermaye stogunun dogrudan kullanilmasi, yatirimlardaki hizlanma ve yavaslamalarin Turkiye’deki uretim potansiyeline etkisini oldugundan %40 civarinda daha dusuk gosterebilmektedir. [EN] The stocks of machinery-equipment and structures (reproducible fixed capital) of an economy are an important determinant of the productive capacity of that economy, and are an important input for potential GDP estimates. In this note, the stock of structures (residential or office buildings, the structures of schools and hospitals, other industrial or commercial structures, roads, bridges, etc.) is estimated to be very roughly one-and-one-half of GDP in terms of value, while the stock of machinery and equipment is estimated at half of GDP. Although the stock of structures is about three times as much, due to the low depreciation rate of structures, their total user cost is similar to that of the stock of machinery and equipment. Given that the productive ability and user cost must be related, this note reaches the conclusion that the contributions of those two types of stocks to total production have a ratio closer to one-to-one rather than one-to-three. This note computes a capital services index that reflects this ratio of contributions correctly to use in growth accounting for Turkey. Using the aggregate capital stock instead of this index would result in underestimating the cyclical effect of investment on Turkish potential GDP by up to 40 percent.

Date: 2012
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