Turkiye’de Vergi Gelirlerinin Iktisadi Dongulere Duyarliligi

Ali Culha

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Vergi gelirleri otomatik dengeleyiciler araciligiyla iktisadi dongulerden buyuk olcude etkilenmekte, bu da butce performansi uzerinde belirleyici bir oneme sahip olmaktadir. Bu notta, Turkiye’de iktisadi dongulerin vergi gelirleri uzerindeki etkisinin yonu ve buyuklugu, bir baska ifadeyle vergi gelirlerinin reel Gayri Safi Yurt Ici Hasila (GSYIH)’ye gore dongusel ozellikleri, cesitli istatistiki ve ekonometrik teknikler kullanilarak olculmeye calisilmaktadir. Calismadan elde edilen bulgular, Turkiye’de vergi gelirleri kalemlerinin es-dongusel oldugunu ve iktisadi dongulerden onemli olcude etkilendigini gostermektedir. Buna ilaveten, vergi gelirlerinin oynakliginin reel GSYIH’ye gore daha yuksek oldugu ve vergi geliri kalemleri ile reel GSYIH arasinda genel olarak esanli bir iliskinin oldugu gozlenmektedir. [EN] Business cycles may have significant effects on tax revenues through automatic stabilizers, which in turn lead to important repercussions on the budget performance. This note attempts to assess the direction and the magnitude of the effects of the business cycles on tax revenues in Turkey. In other words, cyclical properties of tax revenues with respect to real GDP have been analyzed by utilizing a number of statistical and econometric techniques. The findings of the study show that tax revenues in Turkey are procyclical and they are affected from business cycles to a great extent. In addition, it is observed that the volatility of tax revenues as regards the real GDP appears to be higher and there exists in general a contemporaneous correlation between tax revenues and the real GDP.

Date: 2012
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