Turkiye’de Goreli Konut Deflatoru

Mustafa Kilinc and Cengiz Tunc

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Diger ekonomik degiskenlerle cok guclu bir etkilesim icinde bulunan konut fiyatlari takip edilmesi gereken onemli ekonomik degiskenlerden birisidir. Konutun teminat olarak kullanilabilmesi, konut kredilerinin kredi piyasasinda onemli bir paya sahip olmasi, konut kredisi uzerine finansal enstrumanlar yazilabilmesi ve konut fiyati degisimlerinin zenginlik etkisi araciligi ile tuketim ve tasarruf davranislarini etkilemesi konut fiyatlarinin cesitli kanallar ile ekonomik etkiler ortaya koyabilmesine sebep olmaktadir. Turkiye’de gecmise yonelik uzun donemli konut fiyatlarini takip edebilecek bir konut fiyat endeksi bulunmamaktadir. Bu calismada oncelikle tuketim yontemi ile hesaplanan GSYIH altindaki konut yatirimlarina ait deflatorun farkli ulkelerde konut fiyat endeksi icin iyi bir gosterge oldugu ortaya konmustur. Daha sonra Turkiye icin 1998 yilindan itibaren konut deflatoru ve goreli konut deflatoru elde edilmistir. Goreli konut deflatoru 1998-2012 yillari arasinda ekonomik dalgalanmalari takip ederek dalgali bir seyir izlemis ve herhangi uzun donemli bir egilim sergilememistir. [EN] House price is an important economic variable to be tracked. Home ownership which constitutes a large component of investment has strong interaction with other economic variables. Housing has strong economic effects through various factors such as housing being used as collateral, the large proportion of housing credits in credit market, generating financial instruments on mortgages, and the wealth effects of changes in house prices. There is no house price index to track long-term house price changes in Turkey. In this study, it is first shown that housing investment deflator generated from expenditure approach based GDP is a good estimate for house price index in different countries. Then GDP based relative housing deflator is constructed for Turkey since 1998. This relative housing deflator follows a similar pattern to the economic fluctuations in Turkey between 1998 and 2012 and has no special long-run trend.

Date: 2013
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