AB-ABD Serbest Ticaret Anlasmasi ve Turkiye Uzerine Etkileri

Didem Gunes, Merve Mavus and Arif Oduncu

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Dunya Ticaret Orgutu (DTO) kapsaminda gerceklestirilen cok tarafli ticaret muzakerelerinin sonuclandirilamamasinin bir yansimasi olarak bircok ulkenin serbest ticaret anlasmalarina (STA) yoneldigi gorulmektedir. Bu gelismeler paralelinde, AB ve ABD aralarinda ticaret ve yatirim ortakligi olusturulmasi kararini almistir. Soz konusu girisimin Turkiye ekonomisi uzerindeki etkileri bu calismanin konusu olusturmaktadir. Bildigimiz kadariyla AB-ABD arasindaki STA’nin Turkiye uzerindeki ekonomik etkilerini Turkiye’nin surece dahil olup olmamasi ayrimini yaparak analitik olarak inceleyen herhangi bir calisma yoktur. Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) veri tabani ve genel denge modeli kullanilarak AB, ABD, Turkiye ve diger ulkelerden olusan dortlu bolgesel toplulastirma cercevesinde cesitli senaryolarin milli gelir uzerindeki etkileri calisilmistir. Elde edilen sonuclar, Turkiye’nin AB-ABD STA’sina taraf olmasi durumu ile olmamasi durumu arasinda GSYH’de yaklasik 35 milyar dolarlik bir farkin olabilecegini gostermektedir. Ayrica calismada, Turkiye’nin surece dahil olmasinin sadece Turkiye’nin yararina olmadigi belirtilmis ve bununla birlikte; AB ile ABD ekonomileri GSYH buyume oranlarinin, sadece AB-ABD STA’sinin olusturuldugu duruma gore daha yuksek olacagi gosterilmistir. [EN] Due to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) deadlocked multilateral trade negotiations, many countries have started to establish Free Trade Agreements (FTA). In this context, the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) have decided to establish bilateral trade and investment partnership. This note focuses on the impacts of this partnership on Turkish economy. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to analytically analyze the economic impacts of the EU-US FTA on Turkey by differentiating according to Turkey’s inclusion in and exclusion from the FTA. By using Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and a general equilibrium model, the effects of various scenarios on GDP is studied within the framework of four-regional-consolidation, the EU, the U.S., Turkey and rest of the world. Obtained results show that Turkey could be in a gain of 35 billion USD if Turkey is included in FTA compared to if she is excluded from the FTA. Moreover, Turkey’s inclusion in FTA is not only in favor of Turkey but also in favor of the EU and the USA in terms of higher GDP growth rates.

Date: 2013
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