Yurt Ici Uretici Fiyat Endeksi Cekirdek Enflasyon Gostergeleri

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CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Cekirdek enflasyon gostergeleri genellikle tuketici fiyatlarindaki degisimin ana egilimini gormek icin olusturulmaktadir. Bu calismada, uc basamakli yurt ici uretici fiyat endeksi (YI-UFE) imalat grubu alt kalemlerinin aylik enflasyonlarinin oynakligina ve dagilimlarina gore dislamasiyla Turkiye icin on bir adet YI-UFE cekirdek enflasyon gostergesi elde edilmistir. Gostergeler yansizlik, ana egilim takibi, oynaklik, tahmin gucu ve anlasilir olma kriterlerine gore karsilastirilmistir. Sonuclar tum kriterler esas alindiginda tek bir en iyi gosterge olmadigini, dolayisiyla uretici fiyatlarindaki degisimin ana egilimini anlamak icin birden fazla gostergenin bir arada takip edilmesi gerektigini isaret etmektedir. Bu gostergeler, ortalama aylik enflasyona 1,5 standart sapmadan daha uzak aylik enflasyona sahip kalemlerin budandigi V_1,5 ile ana metal ve petrol haric imalattir. [EN] In general, core inflation measures are designed to identify the underlying trend in inflation in consumer prices. In this study, via exclusion of three-digit sub-indices of the manufacturing group according to volatility and dispersion in their monthly inflation rates, eleven core inflation indicators for domestic producer price index for Turkey are constructed. These measures are then evaluated with respect to unbiasedness, trend tracking, volatility, predictive power and complexity criteria. Results reveal that taking into account all the criteria there is no single best indicator, therefore more than one indicator should be monitored together. These measures are found as manufacturing excluding basic metals and petroleum and V_1.5, which is calculated by trimming indices with monthly inflations that are 1.5 standard deviation away from the average monthly inflation.

Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:econot:1406

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