Turkiye’de Firmalarin Yabanci Para Borclulugu ve Kur Riskine Iliskin Mikro Degerlendirmeler

Timur Hulagu and Cihan Yalcin

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Turkiye’de finansal olmayan firmalarin, makro duzeyde bakildiginda, yuksek miktarda net doviz borcu tasidiklari ve bunun da ozellikle bilanco kanaliyla yuksek doviz kuru riski anlamina geldigi gorulmektedir. Bu notta, TCMB Sektor Bilancosu ve TBB Risk Merkezi verileri kullanilarak firmalarin YP cinsi borclarindan dolayi tasidiklari doviz kuru riskliligi mikro duzeyde degerlendirilmistir. Veri setinde yer alan ve ekonomik faaliyetler icinde onemli bir yere sahip firmalarin kur riskinden kacinmak uzere cesitli mekanizmalara basvurduklari tespit edilmistir. Oncelikle, kucuk olcekli ve yuksek kur riski tasiyan firmalarin giderek borc dolarizasyon oranlarini dusurdugu ve daha uzun vadeli borclandiklari gorulmektedir. Ayrica, ihracat geliri sinirli olup da yuksek duzeyde YP cinsi borcu olan firmalarin daha yuksek net kambiyo kari elde ettikleri ve bunun YP cinsi finansal giderlerin onemli bir kismini karsiladigi belirlenmistir. Bununla birlikte, gelirleri mali tablolarda ihracat olarak siniflandirilamayan ve fiyatlamasi doviz cinsinden yapilan bircok sektordeki yurt ici faaliyetin yayginligi kur riskinin gorunenden daha sinirli olabilecegini ima etmektedir. [EN] Non-financial companies in Turkey have a significant amount of foreign currency (FX) denominated debt on aggregate. Macro figures suggest that corporate sector is in substantial short position in terms of FX debt, implying a significant currency risk. This note tends to explore this risk within a micro perspective by using a firm level dataset. We find that firms in the dataset, which account for a significant amount of economic activity, adopt some internal mechanisms to avoid the currency risk. First of all, firms with small size and high currency risk have reduced their liability dollarization ratios and extended the maturity of FX debt in recent years. In addition, findings suggest that firms with limited export revenues and having high FX denominated debt obtain higher FX profits which compensate a significant amount of their FX financial expenditures. Meanwhile, widespread FX pricing of domestic sales, which are not classified under export revenues, implies a lower currency risk of firms than perceived.

Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-cwa
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