Turkiye Dis Ticaretinde Reel ve Cari Dengelenme

Okan Eren and Mustafa Kilinc

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Kuresel finansal kriz sonrasinda 2010 ve 2011 yillarinda Turkiye’de hizli bir dis acik artisi gerceklesmistir. Bu donemde Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi, finansal istikrari iceren yeni bir politika cercevesi uygulamaya koymus ve diger ekonomi kurumlarinin aldigi onlemlerin de katkisi ile dis acikta bir dengelenme yasanmistir. Bu dengelenmenin reel ve cari olarak incelenmesi, analizlerde dis ticaret hadlerindeki hareketlerin etkisini ayristirmakta ve alinan tedbirlerin sonuclarinin daha dogru bir bicimde degerlendirilmesine imkan saglamaktadir. Bu not, 1998 sonrasi donem incelendiginde, Turkiye’nin dis ticaret hadlerinde onemli bozulmalar oldugunu ve son donemde dis acikta gozlenen yuksek seyirde bu gelismenin etkili oldugunu gostermektedir. Alinan politika tedbirlerinin de katkisiyla 2011 sonrasinda reel dis acikta ciddi bir iyilesme saglanmis ve dis acik 2014 ikinci ceyregi itibariyla donem ortalamasina kadar gerilemistir. Fakat cari dis acik ayni donemde azaliyor olsa da yasanan olumsuz dis ticaret haddi gelismeleri sebebi ile donem ortalamasinin oldukca uzerinde gerceklesmistir. Dis ticaret hadleri ayrintili incelendiginde, hadlerdeki bozulmada hem ihracat fiyatlarindaki dususlerin hem de ithalat fiyatlarindaki, ozellikle enerji kaynakli, artislarin etkili oldugu gozlenmektedir. Bu cercevede cari dis acikta kalici iyilesmeler saglanmasi icin, ihracat urunlerinde fiyatlama gucu yuksek urunlerin payini artiracak ve ithal enerji bagimliligini azaltacak tedbirlerin onemli politika alanlariolabilecegi degerlendirilmektedir. [EN] In the aftermath of the global financial crisis Turkey experienced a rapid deterioration in its current account balance in 2010 and 2011. In the process, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey devised a new policy framework that incorporated financial stability concerns and also with the contribution of measures taken by the other regulatory authorities the external deficit improved in the following years. Analyzing this rebalancing process in terms of current and real prices helps us understand the extent to which such policies successfully reduced the deficit. This note shows that there has been a significant fall in the terms of trade of Turkey after 1998 and this fall led to high levels of trade deficit as observed in the last couple of years. With the help of recent policy measures, the trade deficit in real terms has improved considerably and fell up to its long-term average as of the second quarter of 2014. In the same period, even though the nominal trade deficit was decreasing it stayed significantly above its long-term average due to the negative impact of the terms of trade movements. At a closer look, both a fall in export prices and a rise in import prices which is mostly associated with energy prices seem to have delivered the observed behavior of terms of trade. In this framework, this note reveals the importance of the policies that will increase the share of exported goods with high pricing power as well as the policies that will reduce the dependence on foreign energy resources.

Date: 2014
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