Son Donemde Tuketici Guven Endeksleri Tuketim Gostergeleriyle Ne Kadar Uyumlu?

Çağlar Yüncüler

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Ocak – Eylul 2015 doneminde tuketici guvenine iliskin endekslerde suregelen kuvvetli dusus egilimi iktisadi faaliyet icin asagi yonlu onemli bir risk unsuru olarak degerlendirilmistir. Ancak ayni donemde dayanikli tuketime iliskin gostergelerde yuksek oranli artislar gozlenmistir. Bu notta, tuketici guvenindeki belirgin dususe ragmen soz konusu tuketim artisina neden olan olasi unsurlar tuketici guvenini olusturan alt bilesenlerin hareketleriyle aciklanmaya calisilmistir. Bulgulara gore, tuketici guvenine iliskin anketlerde hanehalkinin kendi ekonomik durumuna iliskin verdigi cevaplar, Turkiye ekonomisi geneline iliskin verdigi cevaplara gore cok daha iyimserdir. Bu donemde, genel makroekonomik cerceveyi tuketim harcamasi icin daha az uygun gorseler bile, hanehalklarinin kendi maddi durumlari ve tuketim harcamasi yapma ihtimallerini belirgin olarak dusurmemeleri olasi bir aciklama olarak degerlendirilmektedir. Buradan hareketle tuketici guven endekslerindeki alt sorularin hareketlerinin de analizlerde goz onune alinmasi faydali olacaktir. [EN] The continued strong downward trend in the consumer confidence indices during January-September 2015 period has been assessed as an important downside risk for the economic activity. However, sharp increases in the durable consumption indicators had been observed over the same period. In this note, we attempt to identify possible factors leading to such consumption increase, despite the significant decline in the consumer confidence, by the movement of the sub-components that make up consumer confidence. According to the findings, households’ responses to the questions regarding their own economic conditions are more optimistic than to the questions regarding the overall Turkish economy. Although households evaluate the macroeconomic conditions during this period as inadequate for durable consumption, the fact that they do not significantly decrease the possibility of making expenditures on durable goods and the current household financial condition is considered to be a possible explanation to the supposed inconsistency. Against this background, it would be beneficial to take into account also the movements of sub-components of consumer confidence indices for the consumption analyses.

Date: 2016
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