Issizlik Riskinin ve Secilen Finansal Degiskenlerin Hanehalki Tuketim ve Tasarruf Kararlari Uzerindeki Etkileri

Evren Ceritoğlu and Ece Oral ()

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Ekonomide tuketici davranislari, hem politika yapicilar hem de ekonominin gelecek tahminleri ile ilgilenenler icin oldukca onemli bir yere sahiptir. Tuketicilerin borclanma, tasarruf egilimleri ile satin alma istekleri genel ekonominin gidisatini etkilemektedir. Bu calismanin amaci, Turkiye Istatistik Kurumu ve Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi isbirligiyle yurutulen Tuketici Egilim Anketi verilerinden yararlanilarak tuketicilerin tasarruf yapma, borc kullanma ve tuketim egilimlerini analiz etmektir. Tuketicilerin oznel degerlendirmelerini kullanarak probit modeller kurulmus ve gelir gruplarina gore tuketim ve tasarruf egilimlerinin birbirinden nasil farklilastigi incelenmistir. Bu calismanin Turkiye ekonomisine iliskin yazina birincil katkisi mikro-ekonomik veriler araciligiyla hanehalkinin tasarruf ve tuketim kararlarindaki ayrismayi gostermektir. Ayrica, emek geliri belirsizligi icin gosterge olmasi amaciyla hanehalki oznel degerlendirmeleri kullanilarak issiz sayisi artmasi riski uretilmis ve hanehalki dayanikli tuketim mali satin alma kararlarinin ertelemesine yol actigi saptanmistir. [EN] Consumer behavior is crucially important for policy makers and for those who have an interest in forecasting future economy. Consumers’ attitudes and behavior related to consumption, saving and borrowing affect the general economic situation. This study aims to analyze consumers’ tendencies on saving, borrowing and consumption via Consumer Tendency Survey carried out with the cooperation of the Turkish Statistical Institute and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Probit models are constructed by using subjective assessments of consumers and the diversification of saving and consumption behavior according to income groups is examined. The main contribution of this study to the literature on the Turkish economy is that it shows the divergence of households’ decisions on saving and consumption. Moreover, the number of unemployed people risk is produced as a proxy variable for future labor income uncertainty using household subjective evaluations and we found that it leads to the postponement of household durable consumption goods purchasing decisions.

Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:econot:1608

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