Turkiye Imalat Sanayi Firmalarinin Yatirimlarina Iliskin Tahmin Hatalarinin Incelenmesi

Evren Erdoğan Coşar

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu calismada Yatirim Anketi’nde yer alan firmalarin sabit sermaye yatirimlarina iliskin yaptiklari tahmin hatalari incelenmistir. Sonuclar, tahmin ufku kisaldikca tahmin hatalari ortanca degeri ve standart sapmasinin azaldigini gostermektedir. Firmalarin tahmin verdikleri doneme kiyasla talep, finansman kaynaklari ve beklenen kârlara iliskin goruslerindeki degisimler tahmin hatalari ile iliskili bulunmustur. Ekonomi genelini etkileyen bir kur belirsizligi, sektorel belirsizlik ve $/TL kurundaki degisimler yatirim harcamasi gerceklesmelerinin tahminlerin altinda kalmasina neden olurken firmaya ozgu belirsizliklerin tahmin hatalarina etkisi bulunmamistir. Bununla birlikte 2014-2015 doneminde kur belirsizligindeki artisin firmalarin yatirim kararlarini azaltici yonde etkilemedigi dikkat cekmektedir. [EN] In this study, forecast errors of firms regarding their fixed capital investment taken from the Investment Survey are analysed. The results indicate that as the forecast horizon shortens the median and standard deviation of forecast errors become smaller. The change in firms’ opinions about demand, financial sources and expected profitability are found to be related with forecast errors. While economy-wide exchange rate uncertainty, industry-wide uncertainty and changes in $/TL rate cause realized investment to be lower than forecasts, firm-specific uncertainty does not significantly affect forecast errors. However, the rise in exchange rate uncertainty in 2014-2015 period did not cause a decrease in firms’ investment decision.

Date: 2016
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