Turkiye’de Ic Borc Stokunun Arz ve Talep Kompozisyonunun Donusumune Bir Bakis

Erdal Yılmaz ()

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu calismada, 2004-2015 yillari arasi ic borc stokunun arz ve talep tarafinin kompozisyonu Turkiye icin analiz edilmistir. Bahsi gecen donemde, ic borc stokunun hem talep hem de arz kompozisyonunda dikkat cekici donusumler gozlenmistir. Ic borc stokunun talep tarafinda yabanci yatirimci, tuzel kisi ve ozel bankalarin payi artarken kamu bankalari ve hane halkinin payinin azaldigi saptanmistir. Arz tarafinda ise doviz cinsi ile doviz kuru ve faize endeksli borclanma araclarinin payi azalirken enflasyona endeksli ve sabit kuponlu tahvillerin payi artmistir. Arz tarafinda gozlenen diger onemli bir degisim ise borclanmanin vadesinin uzamasidir. Bu donusumler, faiz orani ve doviz kurundaki soklara karsi borc stokunu saglamlastirirken enflasyona endeksli borclanma araclarinin payinin artmasi da maliye ve para politikasi arasindaki uyumun onemine isaret etmektedir. Yabanci yatirimci payinin artmasi ise olumsuz soklar karsisinda faiz oranlarinin artmasi ve kamu borcunun yeniden finansmani konusunda riskleri artirirken tuzel kisilerin payinin yuksek olmasi bu riskleri dengelemektedir. [EN] In this study, the composition of supply and demand side of the domestic debt stock for Turkey is analyzed for 2004-2015 period. In this period, a significant shift is observed in the composition of domestic debt stock on both demand and supply side. On the demand side, while the shares of foreign investors, domestic institutional investors and private banks increased, the shares of public banks and households decreased. On the supply side, the share of inflation-indexed bonds and fixed coupon bonds increased, whilst the share of foreign currency debt instruments and debt instruments indexed to foreign currency and debt instruments indexed to interest rate decreased. Another important transformation observed in the supply side is the lengthening of debt maturity. These supply side shifts reduce the impact of the shocks related to the interest rate and exchange rate on debt stock. Furthermore, the increase in inflation-indexed bonds implies an advancing in the degree of harmony between monetary and fiscal policy. The high share of foreign investors may cause an increase in interest rates in the event of adverse shocks and affect the refinancing risk of the public debt. While, the high share of domestic institutional investors can balance these risks.

Date: 2016
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