Forecasting Turkish GDP Growth: Bottom-Up vs Direct?

Mahmut Gunay

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [EN] In this note, we compare performance of direct and bottom-up approaches to forecasting Turkish GDP growth. In the bottom-up approach, we forecast each component separately and then aggregate these forecasts to reach GDP growth forecast. In the direct approach, we model and forecast GDP growth itself. Results indicate that bottom-up approach helps reduce forecast errors. Importance of the bottom-up approach becomes more evident when we take into account the storytelling dimension of forecasting. [TR] Bu calismada, milli gelir tahmini icin dogrudan ve dolayli yaklasimlarin performanslari karsilastirilmaktadir. Dolayli yaklasimda milli gelirin alt kalemleri ayri ayri tahmin edilip, bu tahminlerin birlestirilmesiyle milli gelir buyume tahmini olusturulmaktadir. Dogrudan yaklasimda ise milli gelir buyumesinin kendisi modellenmekte ve tahmin edilmektedir. Sonuclar, dolayli yaklasimin tahmin hatalarini azalttigini gostermektedir. Tahminlerin salt rakam sunmaktan ziyade iktisadi bir oyku anlatmak icin de kullanildigi dikkate alindiginda, daha kapsamli analiz yapmaya imkan veren dolayli yaklasimin onemi belirginlesmektedir.

Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-cwa and nep-for
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:econot:1622

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