Asgari Ucret Artisinin Tuketici Kredilerine Etkisi

Ibrahim Ethem Guney, Yavuz Selim Hacihasanoglu and Semih Tumen

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu calismada, asgari ucret artisinin tuketici kredilerine etkisi incelenmistir. Uclu-fark yontemi ve banka duzeyinde veri kullanilarak asgari ucret bandinda isgucu gelirine sahip musteri orani yogun olan bankalarin asgari ucretli kredi musterisi dusuk oranda olan bankalara kiyasla verdigi kredi tutarlarinda Ocak 2016 sonrasinda ciddi bir artis gozlenip gozlenmedigi sorusuna cevap aranmistir. Sonuclar, tuketici kredilerinde asgari ucret artislarina bagli istatistiksel olarak anlamli ancak sinirli (aylik akim veride %10–15’lik) bir artisa isaret etmektedir. Bu artisin ozellikle ihtiyac kredilerinden kaynaklandigi tespit edilmistir. Tasit kredilerinde de anlamli bir artis gozlenmis, ancak konut kredilerinde degisim raporlanmamistir. Asgari ucret artisinin bireysel kredi karti kullanimi ve kredili mevduat hesabi uzerindeki etkileri de incelenmistir. Asgari ucret artisina bagli olarak kredili mevduat hesabi bakiyesinde belirgin bir artis goze carparken, kredilendirilen kredi karti harcamalari tarafinda herhangi bir artis gozlenmemistir. Bu cercevede, asgari ucret artisinin kisa vadede tuketici kredisi piyasalarinda son donemdeki egilimleri bozucu bir etkisinin olmadigi ortaya cikmaktadir. Soz konusu etkinin sinirli olmasinda kredilerle ilgili alinan makro-ihtiyati tedbirlerin de etkili oldugu degerlendirilmektedir. [EN] In this paper, we investigate the impact of the recent minimum wage hike on consumer loans. Using bank-level data and a triple-difference strategy, we ask whether the loans provided by banks with a high share of low-wage loan customers have increased relative to those provided by banks with a low share of low-wage loan customers after January 2016. Our results suggest that consumer credits have exhibited a limited (10–15% in terms of monthly flows) but statistically meaningful increase as a consequence of the minimum wage hike. This increase mostly comes from the increase in the general-purpose loans. Vehicle loans have also increased, while there is no change in housing loans. We also test whether the minimum wage hike has generated an increase in revolving personal credit card usage and overdraft accounts. We observe an increase in overdrafts, whereas revolving personal credit card use has not changed. Although the minimum wage hike generated an increase in the demand for consumer loans, the increase had been managable and it did not distort the recent short-term trends in consumer credits. We believe that the mild response of consumer credits to the substantial minimum wage hike is possibly due to the implementation of macro-prudential policies on consumer credits.

Date: 2016
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