Birim Isgucu Maliyeti Bazli Reel Efektif Doviz Kuru Endeksinin Kapsaminin Genisletilmesi

Yasemin Erduman and A. Arzu Yavuz
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Yasemin Barlas

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] TCMB tarafindan yayimlanmakta olan mevcut birim isgucu maliyeti bazli reel kuru endeksi sadece gelismis ulkeleri iceren sinirli bir kapsama sahiptir. Gerek hesaplamaya dahil edilen ulke sayisinin azligi, gerek temsil oraninin dusuklugu ve gerekse gelismis ulkeler lehine olan yanlilik, mevcut endeksin saglikli bir rekabet gucu gostergesi olarak kullanimini guclestirmektedir. Bu notta, mevcut endeksin kapsaminin genisletilmesi suretiyle yillik frekansta turetilen yeni birim isgucu maliyeti bazli reel kur endeksleri hakkinda bilgi sunulmaktadir. 2003-2016 yillari icin hesaplanan yeni endeksler, gelismis ulkeler lehine olan yanliligi azaltilmis daha dengeli bir gosterge ihtiyacini gidermekte ve boylelikle TCMB tarafindan yayimlanmakta olan tuketici ve uretici fiyatlari bazli diger reel kur endeksleri ile karsilastirilabilir nitelik kazanmaktadir. Mevcut endeks, kuresel kriz sonrasinda Avrupa’daki toparlanmanin gecikerek isgucu piyasalarini olumsuz etkilemesi nedeniyle 2010 yili sonrasinda TL’nin deger kazandigini gosterirken, kapsami genisletilen yeni endeksler diger reel kur gostergeleriyle uyumlu olarak TL’nin soz konusu donemde deger kaybettigine isaret etmektedir. [EN] The current unit labor cost based real exchange rate index published by the CBRT has a limited coverage and comprises only developed countries. Both the low number of countries in coverage, and the limited representation rate, along with the bias towards developed countries, lay the question marks on the use of the current index as a healthy competitiveness indicator. This note introduces the new unit labor cost based real exchange rate indices, calculated for 2003 - 2016 on an annual basis, with extended coverage that reduce the bias towards developed countries. Thereby the indices fulfill the need for more balanced competitiveness indicators and also become comparable with the other consumer and producer prices based real exchange rate indices published by the CBRT. While the current index indicate appreciation of the Turkish lira after 2010, due to the slow recovery of labor markets in Europe after the global financial crisis; the new coverage-extended indices show that the Turkish lira depreciated, in line with the other real exchange rate indicators.

Date: 2017
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