Ic Borc Cevirme Oraninin Belirleyicileri

Defne Mutluer Kurul, Serap Inci ozyer Koca and Erdal Yılmaz ()

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Ulkeler maliye politikasindaki belirsizligi azaltmak amaciyla orta vadeli hedeflerini aciklamaktadir. Maliye politikasi hedefleri ilan edildikten sonra borclanma programi kamuoyuna aciklanmakta, bu sayede borclanma politikasi konusundaki ongorulebilirligin artmasina katkida bulunulmaktadir. Ulkemizde de yilin son ceyreginde, Yeni Ekonomi Programi (YEP) bunyesinde sonraki yila iliskin butce ongoruleri belirlenmekte, Hazine Finansman Programi o yil gerceklesmesi planlanan borc servisi ve finansman bilgilerini kamuoyuna sunmaktadir. Bu cercevede, gerceklesmesi planlanan borc servisi rakamlarina gore, 2019 yilinda ic borc cevirme oraninin yuzde 93,6 olmasi, dis borc cevirme oraninin ise yuzde 74,9 olarak gerceklesmesi beklenmektedir. Ancak planlanan butce hedefi veya borc servisinin sapmasi durumunda ic borc cevirme oraninin nasil bir patika izleyecegini bilmek oldukca onemlidir. Bu dogrultuda bu calismada, ic borc cevirme oranlarinin belirleyicileri analitik olarak incelenmekte ve ongorulerden farkli olusabilecek sapmalarin ic borc cevirme oranlarini nasil etkiledigi ortaya konulmaktadir. Buna ek olarak, olusturulan analitik cerceve kullanilarak, 2019 yilina iliskin finansman ve butce ongorulerine iliskin farkli senaryolar altinda ic borc cevirme oranlarinin nasil degistigi arastirilmaktadir. Bulgulara gore, 2019 yilinda ic borc cevirme oraninin dis borc cevirme oranina esnekliginin, faiz disi denge oranina olan esnekligine gore daha yuksek oldugu gorulmektedir.[EN] Most countries officially announce medium term targets in order to mitigate uncertainties regarding fiscal policy. Taking these targets as given, Treasuries declare a borrowing program at the beginning of each year to contribute to the predictability of the borrowing strategy. In Turkey, in the last quarter of each year, predictions on government budget and other macroeconomic indicators for the subsequent three years are announced in a program, named New Economy Program (NEP) as of 2018. Afterwards, Undersecretariat of Treasury of Turkey publishes Treasury Financing Program which presents debt service and financing information to be realized in the upcoming year. Accordingly, in 2019, domestic debt roll over ratio and external debt roll over ratio are expected to be 93.6 and 74.9, respectively. However, it is important to gauge in what direction the announced domestic roll over ratios can evolve in case the budget deficit and debt service deviate from the announced paths. In this study, we present an analytical framework to investigate the main determinants of domestic debt roll over ratio and the effect of the possible deviations of the budget deficit and total debt service from their predicted values. Further, considering the predictions on financing and budget for the year 2019, we calculate how domestic debt roll over ratio might change under alternative scenarios. Findings reveal that in 2019, the elasticity of domestic debt roll over ratio to external debt roll over ratio is higher compared to the elasticity to primary surplus.

Date: 2018
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