Yabanci Para Gelirler ve Doviz Pozisyonu Firma Bilanco Performansini Nasil Etkiliyor?

Mehmet Selman Colak and Ahmet Senol

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Reel sektor firmalarinin bilanco saglamliginin ihracat gelirleri ve doviz pozisyonu ile iliskisi ilgili yazinda uzun suredir tartisilmaktadir. Bu calismada, soz konusu iliski 2007-2018 yillari arasinda Borsa Istanbul'da islem goren reel sektor firmalari icin sinanmaktadir. Firmalarin bilanco saglamligina iliskin olcut olarak cok degiskenli yontemlerle elde edilen cok degiskenli firma degerlendirmesi (multivariate firm assessment-MFA) skoru, Altman Z skoru ve Altman gelismekte olan ulkeler (emerging market-EM) Z skoru modellerinden yararlanilmistir. Yapilan analiz, firmalarin bilanco performansinin ihracat gelirleri ve doviz acik pozisyonlarina gore farklilastigini gostermektedir. Alt gruplar bazinda bakildiginda, doviz acik pozisyonu olmayan ihracatci firmalarin daha dusuk kredi riski ve ortalamadan daha saglam bilanco yapisina sahip olduklari gozlenirken, acik pozisyonu olan ve ihracatci olmayan firmalarin bilanco yapisinin ortalamadan cok daha zayif oldugu dikkat cekmektedir. Ayrica, doviz acik pozisyonuna sahip ve doviz riskine karsi korumasi olmayan firmalarin bilanco performansinin daha oynak ve finansal soklara karsi daha duyarli oldugu ve bu durumun buyuk oranda firmalarin kur ve faiz kaynakli finansman giderleri ile net karliliklarindaki istikrarsiz egilimden kaynaklandigi gorulmektedir. [EN] There has been an ongoing debate in the literature about how the soundness of firms' balance sheets may be linked to their export revenues and foreign exchange (FX) positions. This study tests this relationship for non-financial firms listed in Borsa Istanbul during the 2007-2018 period. The soundness of the firms' balance sheets is captured by multivariate composite indicators such as multivariate firm assessment (MFA) score, Altman Z-score and Altman emerging market (EM) Z-score. The analysis shows that firms' balance sheet performance depends on their export revenue and FX position. The analysis by subcategories depicts that exporting firms with no FX open position have lower credit risk and stronger balance sheet, while non-exporting firms with short FX position have weaker balance sheet than the rest of the firms. Moreover, firms with FX short position and no hedging against FX risk have more volatile balance sheet and higher sensitivity to financial shocks. This is largely due to the instability experienced by these firms in their financing costs owing to the exchange rate and the interest rate, and also the unstable structure of their profits.

Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara
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