Enerji Ithalat Fiyatlarinin Son Donem Seyri ve Belirleyicileri

Mert Gokcu

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Kuresel enerji fiyatlarinin seyri son donemde Turkiye'de manset cari aciktaki artisi belirleyen en onemli etkenlerden biri olmustur. Bu calismada, enerji piyasasinin gorunumu fiyat hareketleri ile arz ve depolama kosullari acisindan analiz edilmekte ve COViD-19 pandemisinden bu yana Turkiye'deki enerji ithalat fiyatlari ile kuresel enerji emtia fiyatlari arasindaki iliski incelenmektedir. Veriler, 2022 yilinda ithalat hacminde sinirli oranda artis gerceklesmis olmasina ragmen cari islemler dengesinin onemli olcude bozulmus olmasinin kuresel enerji fiyatlarindaki yukselisten kaynaklandigina isaret etmektedir. Sonuclarimiz, petrol ithalat fiyatlarinin seyrinin tarihsel olarak spot Brent petrol fiyatlari ile 1’e yakin korelasyona sahip oldugunu gostermektedir. Dogal gaz ithalat fiyatlarinin ise spot fiyatlara duyarliligi 2021 yilinin son ceyreginden itibaren onemli olcude artmistir. Son donemde yasanan soklar, enerji arzinin cesitlendirilmesinin onemini ortaya koyarken, Turkiye gerek farkli tedarikci ulkeler ile yaptigi uzun vadeli anlasmalar gerekse Karadeniz’de yerel dogal gaz kaynaklarinin kesfi nedeniyle dogal gaz arzi acisindan olumlu bir gorunum sunmaktadir. [EN] Global energy prices have been one of the most prominent factors driving the recent increase in the headline current account deficit in Turkiye. Against this background, this study analyses the outlook for the energy market in terms of price movements, supply, and storage conditions and examines the relationship between energy import prices in Turkiye and global energy commodity prices since the COViD-19 pandemic. The data indicate that the surge in global energy prices in 2022 caused the current account balance to deteriorate significantly, despite the subdued increase in the volume of imports. Our results show that the course of the oil import prices has historically been fairly similar to spot Brent oil prices, with a nearly perfect correlation. On the natural gas front, the sensitivity of natural gas import prices to spot prices has increased considerably since the last quarter of 2021. While recent shocks highlight the importance of the diversification of energy supply, Turkiye stands in a favorable position in terms of natural gas supply with respect to not only its long-term agreements with a number of different supplier countries but also the discovery of local resources in the Black Sea.

Date: 2023
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