Kahramanmaras Depremleri Sonrasi Bölgesel Ihracattaki Toparlanma Egilimi

Ufuk Can

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] 6 subat 2023 tarihinde Kahramanmaras’ta art arda meydana gelen ve “Asrin Felaketi†olarak da nitelenen buyuk depremler sonucunda 11 ilimiz buyuk zarar gormus ve bu iller afet bolgesi ilan edilmistir. Bu calismada, Kahramanmaras depremlerinin bolgesel ihracat uzerindeki etkisi sentetik kontrol metodu ile analiz edilmekte, bulgular Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi bunyesinde reel sektor temsilcileriyle yapilan saha gorusmeleri isiginda detaylandirilmaktadir. 2023 yili subat ile Eylul aylarini kapsayan donemde bolge genelindeki deprem kaynakli ihracat kaybi yaklasik 2,1 milyar ABD dolari olarak tahmin edilmektedir. İhracattaki daralma oransal olarak siralandiginda, yuzde 43, yuzde 33,8, yuzde 31,9 ve yuzde 30 ile Adiyaman, Kahramanmaras, Osmaniye ve Hatay; hacimsel olarak siralandiginda ise, 925,6 milyon ABD dolari, 750,9 milyon ABD dolari ve 300,8 milyon ABD dolari ile Gaziantep, Hatay ve Kahramanmaras on plana cikmaktadir. Ayni donemde Mersin’in ihracatinin yuzde 19,5 artmasinin bolge icerisinde kayan talebin bir yansimasi oldugu degerlendirilmektedir. [EN] On 6 February 2023, Kahramanmaraş experienced major consecutive earthquakes, also described as the “Disaster of the Century†, as of a result of which 11 provinces suffered significant damage and were declared a disaster area. In this study, the impact of Kahramanmaraş earthquakes on regional exports is analyzed by the synthetic control method, and the findings are detailed in the light of onsite interviews of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye with real sector representatives. The earthquake-induced export loss in the region between February and September 2023 is estimated to be around USD 2.1 billion. When the contraction in exports is listed proportionally, Adıyaman, Kahramanmaraş, Osmaniye and Hatay are at the top with 43 percent, 33.8 percent, 31.9 percent and 30 percent, respectively; and when it is listed by volume, Gaziantep, Hatay and Kahramanmaraş are at the top with USD 925.6 million, USD 750.9 million and USD 300.8 million, respectively. It is evaluated that the 19.5 percent increase in Mersin’s exports in the same period is the result of the shift in demand within the region.

Date: 2024
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