Inflation Expectations and Credit Behavior: Micro Evidence from Türkiye

Yusuf Emre Akgunduz, Mehmet Selman Colak, Merve Demirbas Ozbekler and Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Huseyin Ozturk

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [EN] This study examines the impact of global transportation costs on Türkiye’s real export growth between 2013Q1 and 2024Q1. Transportation costs primarily affect the competition between exporters and local producers directly and the competition among exporters indirectly. When transportation costs increase (decrease), Türkiye, which is geographically closer to its main export markets than most of its competitors, is expected to gain (lose) a price advantage over its more distant export competitors. The findings indicate that the estimated coefficient for transportation costs is statistically significant and positive. A 10-percentage-point rise (fall) in global transportation costs, on average, increases (decreases) real export growth by 0.3 percentage points. This effect becomes more pronounced economically during periods when transportation costs exhibit high increases and decreases. Furthermore, these results show that indirect effects are more dominant than direct effects for Türkiye. [TR] Ýktisadi birimlerin enflasyon beklentilerinin yonetilmesi, ozellikle gelismekte olan ulkelerde optimal politika sonuclarina ulasilmasi acisindan modern merkez bankaciliginin temelini olusturmaktadir. Bu baglamda, reel sektor firmalarinin enflasyon beklentilerindeki degisimlerin sonuclarinin anlasilmasi, urun fiyatlamasi, calisan ucretleri, istihdam ve yatirim gibi kararlar uzerindeki etkilerin dogru analiz edilmesi icin gereklidir. Ote yandan mevcut akademik yazin, firmalarin ileriki donemlerdeki enflasyon hakkindaki guncel algilarinin finansal sonuclari hakkinda fazla bir bilgi ortaya koymamaktadir. Bu calismada, Turkiye ozelinde 2011-2024 donemi icin Ýktisadi Yonelim Anketi ve mikro kredi verileri birlestirilerek enflasyon beklentileriyle kredi davranisi arasindaki iliski incelenmektedir. Temel analizler firma seviyesinde enflasyon beklentilerindeki artislarin daha yuksek montanli kredi kullanimiyla iliskili oldugunu ortaya koymaktadir. Ek olarak, bu egilimin YP kredi kullanimini ozellikle orneklem doneminin sonraki kisminda azalttigi gozlenmektedir. calisma kapsamindaki diger analizler enflasyon beklentilerindeki kotulesme sonucu ortaya cikan TL kredi talebinin yuksek kredi finansman maliyeti ve kisa kredi vadesiyle ilintili olduguna isaret etmektedir. Genel olarak bu calismadaki sonuclar iktisadi birimlerin beklentilerinin yonetilmesi yoluyla fiyat istikrarinin saglanmasinin, yerel para birimi cinsinden kredi buyumesindeki asiri hareketlerin kontrol altina alinmasi, kredi maliyetlerinin dusurulmesi ve kredi vadelerinin arttirilmasi kanaliyla finansal istikrari da destekleyen bir mekanizma oldugunu ortaya koymaktadir.

Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-ban and nep-fdg
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