Turkiye�de Enflasyonun Is Cevrimlerine Duyarliligi: Cikti Acigina Duyarli TUFE Alt Gruplarinin Saptanmasi

Oguz Atuk (), Cem Aysoy, Utku Ozmen and Cagri Sarikaya

Working Papers from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: Bu calismada Turkiye ekonomisinde TUFE enflasyonunun cikti acigina ne kadar duyarli oldugu sorusuna cevap aranmaktadir. Bu amacla, TUFE�yi olusturan COICOP 5-basamakli 152 alt grup icin Phillips egrileri tahmin edilmistir. Boylelikle cikti aciginin istatistiki ve iktisadi olarak anlamli bir sekilde etkiledigi gruplar belirlenmistir. Ampirik bulgular enflasyon sepetinin yaklas�k ucte birinin cikti acigindan etkilendigini gostermistir. Cikti acigina duyarli olmayan gruplarda ise enflasyonun ithal maliyetlerle oldukca yakin bir iliski sergiledigi gozlenmistir. Sonuclar, Turkiye�de enflasyonun kalici olarak dusurulebilmesi icin cevrim karsiti (countercyclical) politikalarin tek basina yeterli olmayabilecegine isaret etmektedir.

Keywords: Output gap; Inflation; Phillips curve; CPI; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C51 E31 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-cwa and nep-mac
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